29 countries to contract in 2009, says Economist Intelligence Unit

Risks to most economies still firmly on the downside

The global financial crisis will continue to have a very damaging impact on the global economy in 2009, resulting in a sharp slowdown in economic growth that will spare few countries. According to 2009: country by country, just published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, 29 countries—mostly developed markets, but also some major emerging markets—will experience economic contractions next year. The report predicts that global GDP growth (at market exchange rates) will be just 0.9% in 2009. China will be the fastest-growing major emerging market, although even it will see its growth rate ease substantially.

The poor outlook is further constrained by an exceptionally high level of political and economic risks. Downside threats in 2009 include:

• Further financial shocks which prevent the global financial system from stabilising
• Protectionist policies driving an even greater contraction in world trade
• Geopolitical risks, including continued worries about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the ongoing threat of major terrorist attacks and political instability in a number of key countries.

World growth league table, 2009a
(Real GDP growth, %)
20 fastest-growing countries			20 slowest-growing countries
Qatar	13.7		Iceland	-9.7
Malawi	8.3		Zimbabwe	-4.7
Angola	8.2		Latvia	-4.0
Ethiopia	7.5		Venezuela	-3.0
China	7.5		Ukraine	-3.0
Congo (Brazzaville)	7.3		Taiwan	-2.9
Djibouti	7.0		Estonia	-2.5
Azerbaijan	6.9		Ireland	-2.3
Tanzania	6.9		Singapore	-2.2
Gambia	6.4		United Kingdom	-2.1
Uganda	6.4		South Korea	-1.7
Rwanda	6.3		Denmark	-1.6
India	6.1		Hungary	-1.5
Iraq	6.1		Spain	-1.2
Burundi	6.0		Sweden	-1.1
Democratic Republic of Congo	6.0		Hong Kong	-1.0
Liberia	6.0		United States of America	-1.0
Ghana	5.8		Italy	-1.0
Madagascar	5.8		Seychelles	-1.0
Burkina Faso	5.6		New Zealand	-0.9
a Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

2009: country by country, the well-established annual forecasting guide from the Economist Intelligence Unit, contains a concise assessment of the political and economic prospects for the year ahead for almost 200 countries, together with key economic indicators and a summary of forecast numbers.

Highlights in the 2009 edition include:

• The US, Japanese, euro zone and UK economies will all experience recessions in 2009.
• Sub-Saharan Africa will perform better than other emerging regions. Fully 15 of the 20 top-performing economies in 2009 are in this region, led by Malawi and Angola. Several African nations will actually buck the global trend and experience a pick-up in real GDP growth.
• Despite less direct exposure to the global credit crunch than other emerging regions, Latin America will be particularly badly affected by the downturn in the US. The impact will be felt in terms of lower export growth, fewer tourist arrivals, lower remittances and softer commodity prices.
• Inflationary pressures will fall across the world as aggregate demand slumps and commodity prices fall.
• The difficult economic environment will test the skill of policymakers almost universally, as governments around the world focus on mitigating the impact of the global downturn in their own countries.
• Political risks will remain elevated the world over. Tensions in the Middle East, South Asia and the Caucasus will remain unresolved.

The Report extract from Economic Intellegence Unit website journal.

IRAQI REPORTER

Iraq faced mounting calls on Monday to release the journalist who hurled his shoes at George W. Bush, an action branded shameful by the government but hailed in the Arab world as an ideal parting gift to the unpopular US president. Colleagues of Muntazer al-Zaidi, who works for independent Iraqi television station Al-Baghdadia, said he “detested America” and had been plotting such an attack for months against the man who ordered the war on his country. “Throwing the shoes at Bush was the best goodbye kiss ever… it expresses how Iraqis and other Arabs hate Bush,” wrote Musa Barhoumeh, editor of Jordan’s independent Al-Gahd newspaper. Hundreds of Iraqis joined anti-US demonstrations to protest at Bush’s farewell visit on Sunday to Iraq, which was plunged into a deadly insurgency and near civil war in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion. The Iraqi government branded Zaidi’s actions as “shameful” and demanded an apology from his Cairo-based employer, which in turn called for his immediate release from custody. Zaidi jumped up as Bush was holding a press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Sunday, shouted “It is the farewell kiss, you dog” and threw two shoes at the US leader. The shoes missed after Bush ducked and Zaidi was wrestled to the ground by security guards. He is currently being held by the Iraqi authorities, a source in Maliki’s office said without elaborating. Al-Baghdadia issued a statement demanding Zaidi’s release “in line with the democracy and freedom of expression that the American authorities promised the Iraqi people.” “Any measures against Muntazer will be considered the acts of a dictatorial regime,” it added. But the government called for the channel to apologise, saying: “This action harms the reputation of Iraqi journalists and journalism in general.” Saddam Hussein’s former lawyer Khalil al-Dulaimi said he was forming a team to defend Zaidi and that around 200 lawyers, including Americans, had offered their services for free. “It was the least thing for an Iraqi to do to Bush, the tyrant criminal who has killed two million people in Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Dulaimi. “Our defence of Zaidi will be based on the fact that the United States is occupying Iraq, and resistance is legitimate by all means, including shoes.” Zaidi’s colleagues in Baghdad, where he had worked for three years, said he had long been planning to throw shoes at Bush if ever he got the chance. “Muntazer detested America. He detested the US soldiers, he detested Bush,” said one on condition of anonymity. Soles of shoes are considered the ultimate insult in Arab culture. After Saddam’s statue was toppled in Baghdad in April 2003, many onlookers pelted it with their shoes. But young Iraqi woman Oum Mina said she didn’t consider Zaidi a hero. “Bush is our enemy. But when you invite your enemy into your home, you don’t treat him this way. This could destroy the image of Iraqis.” Protestors in Sadr City, the bastion of radical anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, however, threw shoes at passing US military vehicles, while in the holy Shiite city of Najaf, the crowds chanted “Down with America.” “All US soldiers who have used their shoes to humiliate Iraqis should be brought to justice, along with their US superiors, including Bush,” said Ali Qeisi, head of a Jordan-based Iraqi rights group. “The flying shoe speaks more for Arab public opinion than all the despots/puppets that Bush meets with during his travels in the Middle East,” said Asad Abu Khalil, a popular Lebanese-American blogger and professor at Stanislaus University in California at angryarab.blogspot.com An Iraqi lawyer said Zaidi risked a miminum of two years in prison if he is prosecuted for insulting a visiting head of state, but could face a 15-year term if he is charged with attempted murder. “We fear for his safety,” said Muzhir al-Khafaji, programming director for the television channel, adding that Zaidi had been arrested before by the Americans and that there were fears that more of its 200 correspondents in Iraq would be detained. But in Libya, a charity headed by Moamer Kadhafi’s daugher Aisha announced it was going to award Zaidi an “order of courage” for his actions.